#1 18/07/2014 15:21:39

Franck
Administrateur

Lettres Pictet Funds

Le baromètre de Pictet Asset Management.

30/06/2014 : La menace d'une correction s'accroit


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#2 20/07/2014 08:51:06

May-the
Membre

Re : Lettres Pictet Funds

Les dernières semaines leur donnent diablement raison !
Le contenu est très intéressant car il est sur des indicateurs fondamentaux et sur une période décente.
A lire.

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#3 20/10/2014 17:37:22

Franck
Administrateur

Re : Lettres Pictet Funds

A lire dans le baromètre d'octobre 2014 en page 7 : actions : surpondération de l'Europe et exposition aux marchés émergents ramenée à neutre.

Baromètres Pictet


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#4 22/10/2014 20:06:30

Franck
Administrateur

Re : Lettres Pictet Funds

Pictet AM suggère qu’il existe une voie moins volatile d’obtenir des performances : investir, au-delà des fluctuations passagères du climat des affaires, dans les mégatendances.

Un petit dossier publié en octobre 2014 :

Les grandes tendances qui façonnent le monde ne devraient-elles pas façonner vos investissements ?


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#5 22/11/2014 20:33:22

Franck
Administrateur

Re : Lettres Pictet Funds

Le baromètre de novembre du Pictet, où il est question d'un environnement plus favorable aux actions en fin d’année, d'une surpondération de l’Europe et d'une sous-pondération des États-Unis :

Consulter


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#6 23/11/2014 08:17:10

RicHochet
Membre

Re : Lettres Pictet Funds

Merci. Le baromètre est bien fait. Barings faisait un peu la même chose mais, pour l'instant, il n'y a plus qu'une lettre.
Je ne sais pas s'il est possible d'être prévenu de la parution d'une nouvelle lettre ?

Bon Dimanche.

Ric

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#7 23/11/2014 20:29:52

Norman
Membre

Re : Lettres Pictet Funds

Merci pour cette lettre très agréable à lire, et qui explique bien le raisonnement en faveur de l'Europe. Les tableaux de valorisation par marchés et par secteurs sont très bien faits.

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#8 23/03/2016 09:27:34

Franck
Administrateur

Re : Lettres Pictet Funds

Bonjour,

Extrait du baromètre mars 2016 de Pictet Funds (page 7) :

Japan and emerging markets look good value

In our regional allocation, we keep our preference for equities in Europe and Japan, where central banks are expected to deliver additional monetary stimulus to support their economies. We also retain our overweight on emerging market stocks.

Japan remains an attractive equity market. Even though corporate Japan’s profitability has held up well compared to its peers, P/E ratios for Japanese stocks have not expanded at all since the launch of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Abenomics policy in late 2012.
Japan now ranks as the cheapest equity market on our scorecard. At the same time, Japanese policymakers can be expected to provide
more monetary and fiscal stimulus to support economic recovery; they are sure to be spurred by an export-sapping 10 per cent rise in the Japanese yen versus the US dollar since December. The BoJ’s move to introduce negative interest rates last month in a bid to weaken the yen and support the country’s competitiveness suggests policymakers are committed to turning the country’s fortunes around. Additional monetary policy easing would send a strong signal to markets and create the conditions for Japanese stocks to recover. There are many other reasons to be positive on Japanese stocks. First, labour market conditions are improving, which suggests a return to deflation is unlikely. Second, Japan is home to a cash-rich corporate sector that’s under pressure to allocate capital more efficiently.
This should give rise to more merger and acquisition activity and an increase in returns to shareholders.

Elsewhere, we retain our overweight on emerging market stocks as further evidence emerges that economic growth is stabilising, in China mainly but also in Latin America, where the pace of deterioration has slowed. The Citigroup Economic Surprises Index shows that emerging markets are now performing better versus their developed counterparts than at any point in the last four years. The Chinese government has shown signs that it is determined to stabilise the economy and its volatile financial markets. Recent accommodative monetary and fiscal policies have already yielded some positive results with credit growth picking up. This improving outlook should also help other lift emerging markets. The recent stabilisation in the price of oil and other commodities is an additional factor that could lead to bounce in emerging stocks.
Historically, a 1 percentage point pickup in global industrial growth results in a 6 per cent rise in emerging market company earnings – for US companies, the profit gain is around 4.5 per cent.

We also stick to our overweight stance on Europe. Economic growth across the region remains modest, and we expect output to expand at 1.6 per cent in 2016. Corporate profit margins should receive a boost from low energy costs and a recovery in exports. Monetary policy should also become more expansionary, and we expect the ECB to deliver more stimulus as early as its next meeting in March although we do not believe it will begin buying corporate bonds – the market is simply too small unless financial debt forms part of any plan.
That said, risks to Europe’s recovery have grown in recent weeks. Italy’s banking system has been rocked by a spike in non-performing loans on the balance sheets of some regional lenders while the UK is due to hold a referendum on whether to remain in the European Union.
Elsewhere, we upgrade UK equities to neutral as weakness in the pound sterling should boost the prospects of exporters.

Separately, we remain neutral on US stocks. Expectations for nominal GDP growth have fallen and profit margins have continued to decline. Indeed US profit margins have been in decline since peaking a year ago. One proxy for profit margins is the gap between producer price inflation and unit labour costs. Currently at 6 percentage points, the gap is the narrowest it has been since the 1950s. When it comes to sectors, we keep a moderate cyclical tilt. Materials stocks are the most exposed to a recovery in China, and stocks have already ticked up on the back of easing measures. We also like consumer discretionary and technology companies, which stand to benefit from a rise in
consumer spending. Consumer staples meanwhile, look unattractive as they trade at their most expensive levels ever relative to other industry sectors.


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#9 23/11/2016 19:01:43

Franck
Administrateur

Re : Lettres Pictet Funds

Bonsoir,

Le point de Pictet sur les marchés émergents :

surpondérer les cycliques, la Russie et la Corée du Sud


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